If you just read this headline, you ll be confused. It says More People Dying From Cancer, But the Risk is Lower.
Sounds like a total contradiction, but it s a red herring.
In actuality, the explanation is really quite simple, as detailed in an article in the journal Preventing Chronic Disease. Dr. Hannah Weir from the CDC and colleagues used data on cancer deaths from 1975 to 2009. In addition, they factored in changes in population size and aging to determine risk of cancer deaths.
They found that during that time period, the number of cancer deaths increased this was because the white population aged, and the black population grew. However, when such factors were taken into account, the age-adjusted cancer death rate, or risk, decreased in all groups examined black men and women, and white men and women. The investigators also separately examined data on 23 individual types of cancer, and used the data to predict future cancer deaths.
While they found that the number of cancer deaths increased substantially among all groups between 1975 and 2009 (by anywhere from 46 to 98 percent), this was not true of the predicted rate of cancer deaths. Indeed, the predicted deaths from cancer was estimated to be about 15 percent in men, and less than 10 percent in women.
In their conclusion, the investigators noted while the overall risk of dying from cancer is declining, the impact of underlying demographic changes in the population will increase the burden of cancer on society and health care systems.
American Council on Science and Health Senior Nutrition Fellow Dr. Ruth Kava, comments: There s nothing to be gained from confusing the results of a study to gain readers attention. This study is really rather clear about what is going on the risk of dying from cancer has decreased over the last few decades, and because of population characteristics the actual number of cancer deaths are expected to increase slightly. There s no reason to hide the good news in a scary headline.