Somewhere along the way, our goal of "flattening the curve" for COVID-19 (an achievable goal) has mutated into "finding a cure" (perhaps an impossible goal). Public health and economic policy must be based on reality, not starry-eyed wishmaking. Otherwise, people's lives and livelihoods are in grave danger.
When it comes to unwinding the lockdown, we are faced with the urge to be social once again. And since we are also faced with huge uncertainty, what does "an abundance of caution" actually mean?
It's quite likely that the human toll from COVID-19 will not be as bad as the prediction models forecasted. That's because models contain simplifying assumptions that rarely hold true in the real world; our human response is probably the least predictable of all. And yet, while all models are useful, all models are also wrong.
Twitter captures geolocation data in about 3% of tweets. Two researchers from Johns Hopkins released a report on the changes in our social mobility. How much we are traveling, based on that dataset?
There has never been a shortage of idiots on the planet, but sometimes it takes an earth-shattering event to help them reach their full potential. A little humor for dark times.
As we get used to sheltering in place, speculation turns to an exit strategy. Especially impatient are those most concerned with the economy. If you follow COVID-19 coverage, there are any number of possible approaches going forward.