Dispatch: Flu Deaths Revised

So that oft-cited statistic about 36,000 Americans dying each year from the flu? Not so much. The CDC yesterday revised its estimate of flu deaths downward, reporting in the agency'sMorbidity and Mortality Weekly Report an average of just 23,607 U.S. flu-related deaths from 1976 to 2007. And that’s still a deceptive statistic, because over that time the number of deaths involving flu has ranged from a low of 3,300 to a high of around 49,000. In years where the H3N2 flu strain prevailed, such as the 1990s, there were almost three times the number of deaths as when other strains were dominant.

Reporters on a CDC conference call publicizing the findings were understandably confused about the issue, with one saying he was “really scratching his head here wondering what I’m going to use.”

Trying to make sense of it all, “Superbug” author Maryn McKenna applauds the agency’s effort at transparency and accountability, but adds the newer numbers are “a nuanced and difficult health-communication message.”

Stier says, “Kudos to the government for being more precise with the data. One number may appeal to reporters, but accuracy is best. While some may point out that at the low end, 3,300 is not a lot of deaths, we should not be complacent; the vaccine is a safe and effective way to keep that number low.”