Recent data has indicated that, despite ongoing claims that obesity is skyrocketing in the U.S., it s prevalence has actually been fairly constant for most of the past decade. Now, though, a new report from Duke University researchers and the CDC seems to contradict these findings, suggesting that obesity rates are still creeping up, and that obesity will affect about 42 percent of adults by the year 2030, as compared to today s rate of 36 percent.
For the study, published in the American Journal of Preventive Medicine and led by a Duke University health economist, researchers evaluated data collected between 1990 and 2008 from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System in order to predict trends in obesity over the next few decades. They took into account factors such as grocery prices, unemployment rates, gas costs, Internet access, and eating and exercise habits. One of the main drivers of the study s predicted increase in obesity rates was the expected rise in severe obesity, from 5 percent to 11 percent in 2030. Severe obesity is defined as a BMI (body mass index) of at least 40 which, for many people, means about 100 pounds or more overweight (a BMI of at least 30 is classified as obese).
But ACSH's Dr. Gilbert Ross disagrees with the authors conclusions that obesity rates are on the rise. Two reliable studies published in January indicate that obesity rates have steadied in recent years, he notes. We still read that rates of obesity are skyrocketing. Yet based on the actual evidence of what s happening with obesity rates in the country, we see that this is not the case. Using the word epidemic to insinuate that obesity is continuing to rise is thus misleading.
This is not to say that obesity isn t still a serious problem it absolutely is, adds ACSH's Dr. Elizabeth Whelan. But it s a question of whether and how fast the numbers are rising, and the data indicate that in recent years, they have not increased significantly.
Even if he disagrees with the study s dire predictions of rising obesity rates, Dr. Ross does agree with the lead author s suggestion that initiatives such as encouraging exercise and healthful eating as well as researching effective weight-loss drugs could be a step in the right direction toward stemming the toll of obesity. But, Dr. Ross says, banning school bake sales and sodas is not going to solve this problem.