We continue to be awash with COVID stories. But let us cut to the chase. How many annual COVID-19 deaths are the nation prepared to tolerate on a routine basis? Substantial public health efforts have been devoted to reducing these other causes of death; why should COVID be different? Reducing traffic accident deaths by mandating vehicle seat belts comes to mind, for which some 9000 lives were saved each year. How prepared are we to similarly enforce a comprehensive COVID-19 vaccination program?
The published literature on COVID now exceeds 211,000 papers, books, and documents, which include: 22,866 observational studies, 19,591 reviews, 1496 meta-analyses and 781 randomized control trials. These publications comprise the backdrop for our research and writing. The project began in the spring of 2020 based on a limited source of cumulative COVID-19 data and has broadened considerably. Here is what we have learned.
While COVID-19 vaccinations are increasing (however slowly), infections are increasing more rapidly. Both provide a degree of immunity from further infection. We have previously investigated daily rates of change in detail. Here we consider the cumulative rates of infection and the implications for the future of the pandemic.