Statistics and science aren't the same thing. Moreover, statisticians aren't fortune tellers, yet we continue to treat them as if they are. It's time to stop.
In the first days of the pandemic, our thinking was greatly influenced by models of viral spread and the Imperial College. Also, IHME work comes readily to mind. As we enter months four and five, we have more and more objective evidence from our experience with COVID-19. So the question now is: Should we make policy based upon the models, or the evidence?