Physicians frequently overestimate the probability that a diagnosis or intervention would be helpful. Are they overly optimistic? Are the cynical correct in assuming that optimism hides a conflict of interest? Or are physicians no better than most of us at the mathematics of probability? A new study suggests we are not receiving a passing grade in that course.
A new study shows that when we mentally tally expert opinions, we treat numeric predictions differently than those predicted by words. One of those expressions moves us towards a more extreme prediction offered by experts.