RFK Jr. has been yelling about the causes of ASD for years. Of course, there’s his pet, debunked theory about vaccines and autism that he’s been busy pushing into policy. His new panel of vaccine advisors limited access to the MMRV vaccine for kids. He’s currently considering covering ASD symptoms in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program.
He has also been proposing new theories and treatments. For example, in September of 2025, there was an announcement that Tylenol use during pregnancy is linked with ASD. Additionally, in an HHS Press Release, leucovorin (folinic acid) was announced as a treatment for ASD, linking to a journal that I have covered specifically regarding the junk science that they’ve published on autism.
For me, having RFK Jr. in charge of our health is really terrifying; having him in charge of scientific funding and research is potentially detrimental for years to come. So when the NIH announced its new ASD Data Science Initiative, I was immediately skeptical.
Autism Data Science Initiative
This $50 million initiative is driven by data science. Data science, a buzz phrase of the 2020s, tends to have various meanings. In this case, it involves mining through large datasets to identify associations. For most of us, that sounds perfectly reasonable, and it can be - when used appropriately. Therein lies the rub. While data science plays a role in research, understanding its limitations becomes increasingly important, especially when we collectively seem to have forgotten or never known that correlation does not imply causation.
Data science generates hypotheses. Mining through enormous datasets and identifying potential associations is a good way to pinpoint areas of study. However, it does not and can not demonstrate causation.
This is what makes epidemiological research so difficult. Picking associations out of large datasets means finding associations that are due to chance - two variables that seem associated but actually are not causative, like the rising incidence of eating ice cream and shark attacks. It’s purely coincidental, or in the case I mentioned, related to a third variable, summer activities. These are “spurious correlations.” There’s an entire website dedicated to examples, which is a fun and educational way to spend a few minutes of your scrolling time.
Associations are fine to study, but without replication and multimodal methodologies, causation cannot be established. This is why researchers come to projects with a theory and a hypothesis. When you allow potentially spurious correlations to guide your research, you often end up dedicating a lot of time to finding out that two things aren’t actually related to each other. While that’s important information, it’s not what most people want to spend their time doing.
Environmental Exposures
In April 2025, RFK Jr. held a press conference during which he made several unsubstantiated claims. Most relevant to the new Autism Data Science Initiative:
“We know it’s an environmental exposure. It has to be. Genes do not cause epidemics.”
He also called studying genetic causes a “dead end.” These statements certainly imply that RFK Jr. believes he knows the causes of ASD, which leads to the second point regarding the motivation behind this initiative. The projects seem to have a theme. See if you can spot it.
“Research supported by NIH and others has shown a strong genetic component to autism risk. However, nongenetic factors—such as environmental exposures and maternal health conditions—are less well understood. Projects will investigate a wide range of influences, including environmental contaminants such as pesticides and air pollutants, maternal nutrition and diet, perinatal complications, psychosocial stress, and immune responses during pregnancy and early development.”
While the press release pays lip service to genetic components in ASD, the projects are very much geared towards environmental factors, RFK Jr.’s belief. To be clear, I'm not saying that we shouldn't study the environmental contributions to ASD further. The problem is that most researchers believe the cause is largely genetic, with some environmental factors contributing to it. However, for RFK Jr., this nuance appears to be absent.
I do not wish to discredit the scientists working on the thirteen funded projects. Quite the opposite. Thankfully, they are largely respected career scientists in the field of ASD research. They come from reputable institutions. These are the people who are better suited than most to quickly pivot to the administration's changing whims and expectations, ensuring that their work can continue. If anyone is up to the challenge, it’s them. My gripe is with the underlying motivations and understandings of the initiative.
Autism as the Cause De Jour
There is a good-faith discussion to be had about where we invest our research dollars. Reasonable minds can disagree about research dollar allotments and priorities. However, the existence of the initiative and the underlying motivations convey a great deal to the public, which needs to be unpacked.
First, the mere existence of the initiative, which focuses so heavily on environmental exposures, implies that environmental exposures haven't been considered in ASD research previously. Except, we've been studying environmental exposures in ASD research for a long time. Look no further than all the research conducted on autism and vaccines, for example. And vaccines aren't the only environmental exposure that's been researched. Far from it.
Second, the initiative begins with the conclusion and works backward. Since RFK Jr. is convinced that environmental exposures are the cause of autism, that's what the initiative wants to look at. This is the exact opposite of gold-standard science. It completely disregards scientific methodology, rigor, and all the prior work in this area. When you start at the conclusion and work backwards, it is often belief-driven.
Science is the study of reality, but RFK Jr. is not interested in reality. He’s interested in creating a system that confirms his beliefs. Continuing to hammer his pet theories will only serve to further erode our actual understanding of ASD and how best to support people and families. Regardless of the outcomes of these projects, prepare for a loud victory lap from him announcing what he's “known” all along: it's the environment, stupid.
Katie Suleta, DHSc, MPH
Katie Suleta is a regional director of research in graduate medical education for HCA Healthcare. Her background is in public health, health informatics, and infectious diseases. She has an MPH from DePaul University, an MS in Health Informatics from Boston University, and has completed her Doctorate of Health Sciences at George Washington University.
